All the shadow boxing is done. The first 11 days, marred by crashes, are behind. The peloton has moaned and groaned with aches. But, now comes the real pain.
Britain's Mark Cavendish won his third stage Wednesday holding off former HTC-Highroad teammate and new rival Andre Greipel of Germany.
The reigns of the Tour de France are now handed off to the overall contenders.
With three upcoming stages through the Pyrennes, three-time Tour de France winner Alberto Contador will need to go on the attack to make up more than one and half minutes on his chief rivals, namely Australian Cadel Evans of BMC Racing and brothers Frank and Andy Schleck, the two-headed Luxembourg monster riding for Leopard-Trek team, and Andreas Kloden of team Radioshack. Sitting silently in the wings are Italian Ivan Basso of Liquigas-Cannondale, HTC-Highroad's Tony Martin, the Netherlands Robert Gesink of Team Rabobank, and Americans Tom Danielson and Christian Vandevelde of Team Garmin-Cervelo. In addition, there are Spaniards Sammy Sanchez of Euskaltel-Euskadi and Luis Sanchez of Rabobank, currently in second. All would like nothing more than to happily take the yelllow leader's jersey off the back of current leader Thomas Voeckler, the French fighter for the Europcar, who has proven in the past he is a capable climber.
Voeckler said "he will fight till the end" but "expects to loose the jersey" Thursday.
Gone are some of the pre-race podium favorites: Bradley Wiggins of Britain and Sky Procycling, American Chris Horner of Team Radioshack, Alexander Vinokourov and Jurgen Van Den Broeck, all of whom got banged up on the roads of the Tour de France. Garmin will be without David Zabriskie, who was showing tremendous form in the first week while protecting Thor Hushovd's yellow jersey. It leaves several teams with all their cards to play.
Leopard-Trek would seem to be in a great position with both Schlecks, Jakob Fuglsang, Maxime Monfort and Linus Gerdemann all less than seven minutes from the lead. Gerdemann is an under-rated climber who at the Amgen Tour of California said he would most likely be in the best climbing shape of his life at the Tour de France. Fuglsang proved he is an elite climber with his recent performance at the Tour of Switzerland and Monfort is a strong general rider. And, don't under-estimate the damage Fabian Cancellera and Jens Voigt can inflict in the run up to a big climb.
BMC Racing has all its riders remaining but nowhere near the overall team strength of Leopard-Trek. Led by veteran superman George Hincapie, the team has one focus: a Cadel Evans overall victory. No one is a better captain than the unselfish Hincapie but Evans will have to get help from Swissman Steven Morabito and Frenchman Amael Moinard in the mountains.
Veteran Basso may find him the most unsupported when the peloton gets whittled down but he has the great position of being a follower.
Team Radioshack finds itself without its projected four-pronged attack heading into the mountains as Janez Brajkovic and Horner both crashed out. Even veteran Levi Leipheimer, at one time a potential podium projection, has been banged up and suffered untimely mishaps the first week, pushing him 7 minutes and 16 seconds behind Voeckler. He will no doubt support Kloden but he makes an interesting breakaway threat.
Rabobank has Gesink, who is banged up after first-week crashes, and Luis Sanchez. If Gesink recovers, as his team believes, he could move up, especially with help from climbers Laurens Ten Dam and Bauke Mollema.
Garmin is down to eight riders and the biggest question is how much defending the yellow jersey for a week took out of its general classification contenders. First-time Tour de France rider Tom Danielson is a revelation. Having talked to Tom before the race, he said he was feeling the best he's ever felt. Teammate Christian Vandevelde is another who said he was feeling extremely good going into the Tour. As the road turns up, Ryder Hesjedal and even David Millar are big components for Garmin success. This team may remain a wild card for success throughout the Pyrennes and Alps.
Sammy Sanchez, at only five minutes down, is a danger man. His team is destined to do well as it enters into the fringes of the Basque Country, the home of its sponsor and its crazy fan base.
HTC-Highroad has Martin, Peter Velits, and Teejay Vangarderen, the American who could sneak up in the mountain stages but is there to support Martin.
That leaves Saxo Bank-Sungard. Contador will have to go on the attack and it may start on Thursday's monster stage from Cugnaux to Luz Ardiden. It features the legendary Col du Tourmalet, an above category climb that traverses 17.3 kilometers up to 2,115 meters (almost 6,400 feet), the highest point of the Pyrennes, in the run up to Luz-Ardiden, another above category climb that climbs 13.3 kilometers to 1,715 meters and the finish.
Stage 12 prediction: After an early breakaway gets caught, the fireworks should go off not on the first climb up the unknown climb of La Hourquette d' Ancizan (Category 1), but on the Col du Tourmalet. Expect a selection of 20 to 25 riders to make it over close together with another 15 or so grabbing back on for about 40 on the lower slopes of the Luz-Ardiden. Expect Saxo Bank-Sungard, led by Richie Porte, Daniel Navarro, and Chris Anker Sorensen to be setting up Contador. Every other major contender should follow. In the end, Contador may not be able to shake the Schlecks but could gain time on Evans and others. Even money might be on the Schlecks waiting for Stage 14 to Plateau de Beille or Stage 18 and 19 to make any significant moves. The first day in the mountains, however, have proven that legs don't always respond in traditional ways and surprises do happen.
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